A look at real returns from 1899 to today – including the gold booms, apartheid-era sanctions, the 2008 crash, and the Covid dip. The numbers show why staying invested through every crisis has historically been the biggest driver of long-term outcomes for local portfolios.

Since 1961 the rand has lost about 98 % of its purchasing power against the dollar, yet most attempts to “get out at the right time” have failed. We examine historical data and academic studies on currency forecasting – and what it means for South African investors using their annual offshore allowance.

From chasing the latest Naspers surge to panic-selling during load-shedding headlines, local investors are especially vulnerable to recency bias and home-country bias. A review of South African-specific behavioural studies and practical ways to counteract emotion when markets feel chaotic.