The Johannesburg Stock Exchange is one of the oldest continuously operating equity markets in the world. Data going back to 1899 give South African investors a rare long-term perspective that few other countries can match.

When adjusted for inflation and including reinvested dividends, the JSE All Share Index has delivered an average real return of roughly 7 % per year over more than a century. That figure has remained remarkably stable across different 30- or 40-year windows, regardless of wars, sanctions, commodity booms, or financial crises.

Missing the ten best months in the past 50 years would have cut an investor’s final wealth by more than half—even after sitting through every major crash.

The numbers also highlight how dangerous market timing can be. The strongest returns have almost always followed the worst drawdowns: the recoveries after 1974, 1987, 1998, 2003, 2009, and 2020 produced the bulk of long-term gains. Investors who tried to “wait for calm” typically missed those rebounds.

The role of dividends on the JSE

Dividends have contributed roughly 40–50 % of total real returns since 1960. Companies that consistently pay and grow dividends—especially resource giants and certain financial and consumer stocks—have been the backbone of local equity performance. Cutting or eliminating dividends during tough periods has historically been a reliable warning signal.

What the past does not guarantee

Historical averages are not promises. Future returns could be lower (or higher). But the long JSE record does show that a disciplined, diversified, low-cost approach has survived every conceivable economic and political shock South Africa has faced. That is the closest thing to a free lunch markets have ever offered local investors.